Well, there are three main options: the tactical victory of Kusari, the tactical victory of Gallia, and a stalemate. I will elaborate on each of those before saying what I personally think.
Kusari is unprotected right now and it is a miracle that the Dragons are not using this situation for their benefit. If Kusari fleets are cut off, it would require a single fleet for the Gauls to breach Kusari core worlds. Planetary defense grids will hold, of course, but the cut supply lines will render the planets besieged. If the Dragons, however, decide to help the Gauls - I doubt they will help defeat their own people, still it depends on the scale of help provided - the Gauls with the access to Dragons’ knowledge on secret routes throughout Kusari systems will have the advantage of carrying out rapid unexpected strikes here and there. In absence of the navy, the police would not be able to hold off a Gallic fleet. So, surely, there is a risk of Kusari losing, and losing badly. I am saying a “tactical” defeat because i do not think Gallia will go as far to bring down Kusari on the whole - it would require a lot of resources which they do not have as of now. Still, knowing their determination they can even go this path at expense of their own stability, prosperity, and integrity “to send the message”, but then they will be very vulnerable to, say, warmongers in Libertonian political establishment who might seize the opportunity to strike already bloodied Gallia together with Bretonia. So I will not consider an unconditional capitulation of Kusari as an option.
A tactical defeat of Kusari, however, will not bring anything good as well. Most likely, we will be forced to pay reparations, decrease temporarily the size of our fleet, and give up claims in Taus. A side effect might be inability to protect certain assets against the inner foes - Samura’s colonisation efforts in Tottori and Nagano can become infeasible. Without the protection of the Navy, the dragons will seize Miyazaki and Tomioka for themselves and, lacking the capital, they will not be able to uphold the development of the colonies and the planets will be lost. Our economy will suffer badly in other ways as well: increased taxation to pay off the reparations, restoration of what is left of the fleet, cessation of trade with Gallia and re-orientation of the markets, again. You all remember how the markets suffered after the installation of the republican puppet government, re-orienting trade to Gallia. The financial sector will surely take a hit, too, as the stocks and other derivatives will lose in price. Most importantly, the imperial government bonds will lose its status of “high-trust-low-income” derivatives, losing in price and depleting the savings of the citizens and businesses.
Diplomatically, being loser in war which Kusari started will certainly not give any rights to posing oneself as victims, thus not having diplomatic support in the case. Having antagonised the Crayterians, who are tightly connected to Bretonians and Libertonians, will not earn us brownie points among the political establishments of Liberty and Bretonia, albeit they overall being anti-Gallic. The whole story with starting a war with some tailored excuses, for I cannot call those “casus belli”, without even proper declaration already renders Kusari as an unreliable and unpredictable diplomatic partner.
Tactical victory of Kusari can certainly bring some benefits for the Empire, yet they will be accompanied by a whole range of problems depending on what will be the demands of the victor. Given the poor reasons for beginning the war, the Shogunate can get greedy and instead of the declared “punishment for war criminals” and “destruction of the weapons of mass destruction” demand territorial concessions. Theoretically only Languedoc and Lorraine could be demanded due to proximity to borders. Looking at the theatre of war, Languedoc is beyond re-capturing, but Lorraine has significant KNF presence. The system is connected through Tau-53 (or “Rishiri”, how the government certainly would call the system should they “win” Lorraine) to Kusari coreworlds. These gains will be accompanied, most likely, by the spoils of war in the Taus - Tau 23, Tau 31, and Tau 53, the latter falling under full control of Kusari. Most likely, they will demand a contribution from the Gauls to alleviate the poor economic condition the Empire is in right now, limit the size of the Fleet of Gallia, and some symbolic tribunals over alleged “criminals” combined with staged for the public destruction of Gallic weaponry. Let us consider plan maximum - Kusari gets all of this.
Lorraine will effectively fall under Kusarian occupation. Our forces there will not be guests, and Gauls are known as fierce xenophobes, especially on pro-royalist world of Metz. Do you think they will sit idly and doing nothing? The KNF will be forced to sit entrenched on Metz struggling against the guerrillas. Moreover, the whole story about “not harming civilians” will be trashed as soon as they will be forced to fight against the guerrillas. Now, let us remember the basics of occupation - you need a lot of troops to establish at least some semblance of control. Because of this, many millions of troops will have to be stationed on Metz. They need supplies and support, and this is an economic burden on all of Kusari. Let’s say they can cover the troops stationed there with the contribution Kusari gets from Gallia. Then, a different problem arises - they need to supply the newly acquired world. Metz is integrated in Gallic economy and torn apart from it, the planet will require a lot of supplies and newly established trade routes. Given the disposition of the local populace, it will not be easy. Again, it will be a burden on Kusarian economy. To make the planet profitable it would take decades, and a change in the opinion of the locals. Remembering the one of the reasons of the Gauls to attack Sirius was because of revenge for events happened back in Sol, I do not think they will forget these events that easily. Kishiro and Samura would be willing to fight for the new market which, however, they would find to be used to different technologies and overall unwilling to do business with them. The system will be a burden, rather than a gain, especially in conditions of already weakened on all fronts Kusari economy during this war and all the other wars preceding it.
There are also political and diplomatic ramifications of the loss of Metz and overall the defeat of Gallia to Kusari. Firstly, Gallia is more likely to unite in the face of existential threat. Be it republicans or royalists, seeing one of their worlds taken away by some foreigners will instill fear and anger, which are certainly not worse than traditionally good virtues in prompting political unification.
Secondly, Gallia will likely seek a revanche with the quite expected and natural casus belli of taking what was lost back. If Metz was taken previously, it would deprive Kusari of any ideological defence in rebuking the claims: we have never actually claimed any Gallic territories in the declaration of war, hence their occupation is wrong in all ways. A united Gallia can pose a much worse threat than disorganised Confederacy.
Thirdly, being occupants ourselves, we will not be able to expect help from the other Houses. Even despite Liberty and Bretonia disliking Gallia, they both remember that we similarly to the Gauls were waging war on Bretonia, and were close to assaulting Leeds ourselves and were stopped only by the arrival of the Gallic armada. Should the Gauls attack us to right what has been wronged in their opinion - we would be left alone.
Besides, the tactical victory would be possible only and if only the Gauls actually agree to it. Knowing how fiercely they fought on all fronts during the invasion, I doubt it would be that easy. Besides, they can endure lengthy war being fought in their homes and having a developed industrial military complex oriented at permanent war, while we are already strained to our limits.
So, in short, tactical victory of Kusari would be a pyrrhic victory - the gains will need to be developed for decades, be it in Taus or Gallia, to at least bear visible benefit while the burden will be felt immediately, exposing all the weakness in Kusari to other players on the international arena, simply waiting to exploit Kusari. It is our luck, let all the Rheinlanders hearing this forgive me, that Rheinland is in a state of turmoil and cannot use the situation to their benefit, otherwise their fleets would be somewhere in Sigmas already.
And variant number three - the stalemate. In my opinion, it is the most likely variant of developments. Both sides are tired and exhausted, both sides have their internal problems, albeit Kusari more so. Those puppeteers behind this war will find a way to get the benefit, so it will be typical diplomatic “wheelings and dealings”. I cannot say for sure what will be the matter of discussion on this case but I presume revision of spheres of influence in Taus, exclusive trade rights, some political concessions, etc. The outcome will also depend heavily on who will be the sides to the peace talks and whether there will be any mediators. Still, this is not only the most likely but also the most preferable outcome. It will prevent strong sentiments for any revanche, establish a new status quo that will be a safeguard against new conflicts (although not excluding them completely), and reduce the tensions. Again, that would depend on which terms are offered. If Kusari is more generous in terms and demands less, it is possible to return to at least some semblance of stability in the region. More demanding stance can jeopardize following re-building of peace, prevent trade between the Houses in the future, and prompt the Gauls to even more chauvinistic policy. |