+- Discovery Gaming Community (https://discoverygc.com/forums)
+-- Forum: The Community (https://discoverygc.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?fid=4)
+--- Forum: Freelancer Forum (https://discoverygc.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?fid=11)
+--- Thread: Population of Sirius (/showthread.php?tid=14028)
Population of Sirius - Unseelie - 12-09-2008
' Wrote:There's talk about starvation and such in the history of Sirius. http://discoveryfl.com/wiki/index.php?titl..._Sirius_historyLast night I did a simple experiment with Elgato, in regards to the dangerousness of space. If we assume 90 corsairs die in space every day, which what he estimated, then that still doesn't account for a great drop in the growth rate, as 2400 people are born every day, under the most recent numbers I've been given about the actual mod. Not sure how they measure up to 84 infocards.
And of course space exploration must have been dangerous and mortality rate high, so I doubt we could have current growth rates in Sirius as we see in Earth now.
Besides Sirius seems to be pretty advanced society meaning that birth rate must have dropped closer to 1 or even below it like all the western countries. We have a population cap in these countries which seems to kick in after certain standard of living becomes a norm.
As for growth rates, I think the current ones are probably around 0, or less than 0, because of population caps on planets/spacestations. But I'm willing to argue that today's lowering growth rate is due to a cultural conception that there isn't enough space, in the large part. If people were encouraged by the governments and society to have more children, they would, which I expect to have happened through at least the first 100 years. Even after that, family growth offers great chances for social mobility and societal industry. Moreover, Virgin Worlds-the idea that there is open space over the next ridge.
In summation, we're talking about many planets, and much much more space. There would be no reason to enact any sort of societal growth restrictions until, at the very least, many planets had many billions of people.
Population of Sirius - pchwang - 12-09-2008
Growth rates are high, but as I said, you also need to factor in catastrophic drops in population and all the other anti-growth factors that keep it down.
For the corsairs, the constant state of famine puts a huge dampener reproductive rate. You don't want to have offspring when you only get 1 good meal a day.
Quote:If we assume 90 corsairs die in space every day, which what he estimated,This is not what I said, actually. I said that there is a NET growth of 90 Corsairs, and it is definitely a hypothetical number. 290 Born a day minus the 200 that die per day is 90 net.
Population of Sirius - Unseelie - 12-09-2008
You'd have to kill 2000 every day, more or less. Thats, for a nation smaller than the united states, smaller than japan, 730,000 casualties every year. For decades.
Again, I don't think you've looked at the numbers right. Though, 90 million isn't my number. My number is closer to 900 million, which is 24,000 births a day, at a birth rate of +1% yearly.
Population of Sirius - pchwang - 12-09-2008
Quote:24,000 births a dayHow is that possible? Starving people do not reproduce well.
Be regardless, as I told you before, my argument is also coming from a different angle. The angle that there are so many inconceivable factors that can change or alter population that you can't just approximate everything with a function.
EDIT: If you haven't noticed, I'm completely disregarding your baseline numbers, because they aren't possible. First, you're arguing that Zoners and Pirates should not be as powerful as they are now, but with the workforce that they have with hundreds of millions of people, a superpower is not unlikely.
Population of Sirius - Linkus - 12-09-2008
In the arguement about starving people having fewer children, I direct your attention to Africa. More often than not, lower standards of living mean people have MORE children. The more 'developed' nations have far lower birth rates than the 3rd world countries.
Think of it this way, you have one more person to work the farms etc. Of course, if there was only a limited amount of land in total for the Corsairs (IE, 100 acres can only support so many and without advanced technology you can't really go over a certain amount of development on it) then there would be 'laws' put in place to force a 1 child per family rule, much like China in present times.
Population of Sirius - Kambei - 12-10-2008
if you want know exact number you need to know 2 things
1. number of ppl in sleepership
2. statistic of natality in europe between last Napoleonic war and first world war
than you just need math:)
you must also count in your formula with war variable. Number of war variable can be -1% per war.
Population of Sirius - Primus Avatar - 12-10-2008
' Wrote:In the arguement about starving people having fewer children, I direct your attention to Africa. More often than not, lower standards of living mean people have MORE children.
you stole those words right out of my mouth:P
the worse hellholes have the best birthrates and lowest lifespan.
Population of Sirius - guitarguy - 12-10-2008
According to Malthus' theory of population growth, famine, war, and disease will limit a population's growth.
Population of Sirius - Unseelie - 12-10-2008
Starving People don't have high birth rates?
' Wrote:Note that the Outcasts have a very low birth rate and that in modern Earth, countries with a lack of food, or in poverty, tend to have higher birth rates than first world nations.
I can imagine Corsairs having a high birth rate.
' Wrote:EDIT: If you haven't noticed, I'm completely disregarding your baseline numbers, because they aren't possible. First, you're arguing that Zoners and Pirates should not be as powerful as they are now, but with the workforce that they have with hundreds of millions of people, a superpower is not unlikely.Sure. If you compare what I say they should have to what they have now, they are superpowers. If you compare what I say the should have to what I say the houses should have, they're piddling little nothings.
As for Malthus's limits to growth, I keep saying this:
' Wrote:I understand these numbers are insane, and that population pressures would set in. This is pure growth. Anyone want to make assumptions as far as carrying capacities on planets, when each planet was coloniezed, and what the stations can hold?
Finally, Elgato, I direct your attention Here, where three times as many people have said sirius is rather safe, as compared to your fallout disaster world. Therefore, I feel safe in disregarding your opinion on such as a weird outlier.
In conclusion, things like disease, murder, and premature death, are relatively constant, and caused in large part by population pressures. 90 million, in the case of the sairs, is probably not enough pressure to cause much at all. Furthermore, those things are built into my calculations, built into the growth rate. It takes all these things into account. Not many people are in space, even compared to the vanilla population numbers. Its just not that big a portion of the population who are risking themselves in the crazy outlands, wars, and pirate debacles of space.
Population of Sirius - sovereign - 12-15-2008
I just remembered something. Texas incident. That can't have been good for Liberty's population.
Other than that, if the houses hold as many people as projected in the unrestricted growth model, the living conditions must be rather compact, with people surviving off of the super-genetically-altered equivalent of beans and rice. They possibly could hold that many people (see my last post) but I think that it would be unlikely that the people would settle for those conditions; the mere existence of "Luxury Food" lends me to believe that the planetary population cap is much, much lower.
Before we can get into that, however, we need to come to a consensus about the scale of the stations; are they scaled with the ships or the planets? I'm inclined to think they are scaled with the planets, if nothing else because the Freeport in Omicron Theta provides food to Crete. Crete is more or less infertile, as I understand, and the crops that can be grown are not the most efficient... so to maintain the numbers the Corsairs are assumed to have, they need a LOT of food. A station smaller than a battleship couldn't possibly feed millions, much less billions, of people day in and day out. Granted, the Corsairs might jack a lot of food from transports... but that's still an insane amount of food to be stealing and transporting; especially since they would effectively be commandeering half the food output of Stuttgart or Cambridge, and have a seriously adverse effect on the sustainable population of the House planets.
Thoughts?