I pay attention, always, types of players. As of the two days I have been online 85% of my encounters have been new players. How I can tell? They're all asking me questions.
What I believe that the core veteran groups are not playing. The girth of our pop is based on 1+3 year players. Less 4-7 year players. But our 1 - 3 years have been less than usual.
I remember in 484 the lowest I'd see is 50, 485, 45, 486? 33 players.
Is there a correlation? I believe from 485 on there has been such a dramatic change in how this server responds to its casual based players that it has made it harder to learn the curve of the game. NOT as nearly as terrible as the Star Wars mod or Crossfire, but enough to dampen new players.
Think you're all too paranoid and doing a self fulfilling prophecy.