Tohoku would fall behind Dragon lines (Okinawa, Hokkaido). I guess it wouldn't be a central piece in the Civil war, but The Order could use the opportunity to press on the Arch unhindered from the Navy efforts. Could be another reason for a weak point in the Dragons side, as Zelot said I was making them overachieving with their current resources. GMG transports and some lent Order vessels bolstering their ranks could make them seem more stronger.
Order focus should be the Arch, and unless there comes a time of widely known nomad infestation in one of the faction, would probably keep themselves out of the frontlines.
The Junkers are trully a... concern . Their presence in the Taus is strong, and I feel this is an opportunity to enter the Kusari market they would not pass. I have heard that some groups in Kusari would be willing to get junker cooperation on their side, in detriment of the Hogosha (man, will they need to run a lot in this situation, to keep their stuff).
Will update the first post with some added info from the feedback.
I would like to hear about the more completed version of Zelot's scenario, as so as he can.