You know, @Couden, the original expectation was that the Coalition would react in a violent, territorial fashion to Gran Can and Aland being taken. Which, as we know, never happened. I'm definitely of the opinion that Bretonia would have had a much worse time in the Omegas if the Coalition had done some shooting.
I really don't want to derail this thread though. There is some very, very interesting speculation going on here, so don't let me interrupt it. I will say that after the war I want to do a retrospective about how things would have been different if certain events had gone differently, so we'll have more time for this line of discussion then.