(07-11-2018, 10:12 PM)Gardarik Wrote: Seeing discussions like that, my eyes having completed a few courses on social demographics bleed. Nor only people underestimate the fertility of humans over long time-span, but also the level that technologies play in securing human population growth by, say, reducing child mortality. And we are talking not about modern-like Earth, but actually the era of FTW travel, nanotech, tachyon guns, cold fusion and whatsoever. Even despite all this being highly speculative and fantasy-like, some assumptions are just lunacy.
It's also a future of constant war and heavily weaponized criminals. And to combine both: Golanski. Space-faring people don't live long. I do wonder how that is reflected on planets, though. I guess that's also just speculation.
I always imagined that there are very distinct populations of spacers and planet-dwellers; since not everyone can afford space travel for starters. But that's just my headcanon.
Either way, planets haven't seen much violent conflict during the Sirian history. (Gallic invasion of Leeds notwithstanding)
(07-11-2018, 09:36 PM)Gardarik Wrote: Since Phantoms were retconned, Coalition's population should be much bigger than in infocard.
I did some calculations before and came to the conclusion that Coalition's population should be at least as big as of Malta.
Reasons:
1) a rule of thumb in human demographics is that for a stable genetically diverse (no incest) population to exist, the initial number should be at least 50 people (25 couples). Since Coalition members managed to get on their own to Omega 52, this condition is likely to be fulfilled.
2) Sirius Coalition was formed in 23 AS, giving them 800 years to grow. Even if we take modest natural population increase, by 825 the population should be pretty big. More especially since in authoritarian states with planned economy fertility is also "planned" and promoted with free medical care, good maternal leave and propaganda.
3) Coalition has two habitable planets, increasing the pool of available resources, place for population growth and survivability from disasters. Also this means that space travel was re-engineered relatively early to allow colonisation of the neighbouring planet. If this level of technology was available, the technological level for supporting population growth was also available.
All of this is a hypothetical as everything on Disco, of course, but the qualitative model thereof works and shows numbers between 400 million and 800 million for both planets combined. To me it makes sense
Eh .. it's a dramatic underestimation. You're also missing some figures. 50 people is enough for genetic diversity, yeah, but it isn't enough for growth due to the lag of when the next generation becomes of fertile age. Assuming a relatively young first birth age of 21 years old and an average lifespan of 75 years, you need about a 100 people to start a growing population and, at minimum, with an emphasis on ages 10-40 and a total fertility rate of 3.68 children per woman during her lifetime. This translates to a moderate growth rate of 2.5%. After 800 years, that amounts to 50 billion people. However, in an environment of abundant resources through space mining, a growth rate of 2.5% is actually on the low end of the scale. Assuming even a slightly higher growth rate of 3%, which means 4.21 children per woman, you arrive at 10 trillion people after 800 years.
Yeah, obviously these numbers are ridiculously big and no planet is going to support 10 trillion humans, but the point is that after 800 years every settled planet in Sirius should've realistically turned into an ecumenopolis housing tens of billions of people at the limit of the the respective planets' carrying capacities. So while a population of 400 to 800 million people sounds sensible, it is by no means realistic. The Coalition would've gotten there sometime between the 500AS and 600AS already, as would everyone else, centuries before Discovery.
Fertility rates would have had to absolutely collapse Sirius-wide sometime during the early centuries after settlement (but not too early) for planets to get to their stated populations only just now. I wouldn't really pay into population figures much. They're silly.
A fertility rate of 3.91 children per woman, meaning a growth rate of 2%, with a starting population of 100, an average first birth give age of 30 and a human life span of 80 years ... actually ends up at about 500 to 700 million people after 800 years! Only when the population pyramid strongly emphasises ages 10-40 though ... a flat population pyramid just crashes and burns.
The kicker, of course, is that 30 is a ridiculously high first birth age in an environment of colonial settlement with resource abundance and space technology, while 2% is a ridiculously low growth rate under such circumstances.
Tbh, seems for long-time society in sirius kicker only in capability of planets to support population. So that just speculations without big lore about planets.
Anyway there developers decide how much population of some or another faction.